Orientul Mijlociu

The nuclear deal with Iran and the law of unintended consequences

The Thanksgiving holiday and the consumer shopping frenzy over “Black Friday” last week temporarily captured America headlines obscuring for a brief spell, the nuclear deal that, if consummated, will assure Iran will not develop nuclear weapons.  But make no mistake. Debate over the agreement signed by the P-5 Plus One, the European Union and Iran will fill tons of newsprint and hours of television airtime over the next six months as debate rages over the virtues and vices of this deal.  Yet, almost certain to be lacking is thoughtful consideration of unintended consequences that may arise whether the agreement succeeds or sinks and how to respond regardless of the outcome. [...]

By |2017-11-14T21:28:29+02:00December 6th, 2013|Blogs, Harlan Ullman., Orientul Mijlociu, Regions|0 Comments

Freezing Iran’s nuclear ambitions: faux pas, fiasco or flash of genius?

In an extraordinary time, by any measure last week was extraordinary. On Thursday, the Senate went nuclear. The super-majority requirement of 60 votes that allowed the revered “filibuster” to block confirmation of most presidential appointees was ended. Friday marked the fiftieth anniversary of John F. Kennedy’s death.  And Sunday brought the news of a nuclear agreement between the P-5 Plus One (the permanent member of the UN Security Council---the U.S., UK, France, Russia and China plus Germany and Lady Catherine Ashton, foreign policy head of the European Union) and Iran. The specifics will be closely studied.  The agreement “freezes” Iran for six months from enriching uranium; destroying so-called HEU (highly [...]

By |2017-11-14T21:28:29+02:00November 28th, 2013|Blogs, Harlan Ullman., Orientul Mijlociu, Regions|0 Comments

What next for syria—breakthrough, breakdown or botched opportunity?

The Obama administration is on the verge of botching an unprecedented opportunity. Prior to the remarkable joint U.S.-Russian initiative that established a process to dispose of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal, the outlook for the region was grim.  The only certainty was continuing violence that will kill tens of thousands and displace many more hundreds of thousands of Syrians. President Barak Obama had double checkmated himself by declaring that Syrian President Bashar al Assad must stand down from office and then setting a “redline” around using chemical weapons.  Following the chemical attacks that killed some 1400 people on August 21st, Obama made two highly contradictory decisions.  First, the president vowed to [...]

The fall of our discontent

On this anniversary of the attacks that leveled the Twin Towers in New York and part of the Pentagon a dozen years ago, a long, hot and wet summer in Washington, D.C. risks metastasizing into a Fall of Discontent.  Syria is the most incandescent and looming issue underscored by President Barack Obama’s speech last night.  But Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and other ticking time bombs have not been defused.  And world economies remain fragile and emerging markets in flux. Any strike against Syria has the potential to ignite broader regional conflict.  Oil prices would be affected in the extreme with obvious economic consequences that will extend to China and the Pacific.  [...]

Interviu acordat ziaristului Ion Petrescu referitor la situația din Siria

1. Se ştie, la Washington D.C., că preşedintele Barack Obama are o şansă bună să obţină sprijinul Senatului, unde democraţii au cuvântul decisiv, dar Camera Reprezentanţilor, controlată de republicani, teoretic va proceda ca şi până acum, blocând iniţiativa prezidenţială. Cum comentaţi acest tablou al raportului de forţe existent pe Capitol Hill? Situația din Siria este intolerabilă. Dimensiunea umanitară a acesteia este impresionantă cu peste 2 milioane de refugiați cu sute de copii uciși de utilizarea gazului sarin, gaz interzis în 1991 de ONU și catalogat atunci ca armă de ucidere în masă. Ceea ce președintele Obama a anuțat ca iminent, un atac cu rachete Tomahawk, la adresa regimului Assad a [...]

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