Harlan Ullman.

Too many archdukes, too many bullets

Ninety-nine years ago this Friday, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his pregnant wife Sofia were gunned down in Sarajevo by a nineteen-year old Bosnian Serb nationalist named Gavrilo Princips.  The assassinations quickly provoked a crisis that more quickly erupted into world war.  Ironically, many of the elites in Europe believed that an early 20th century version of globalization and economic interdependencies on the continent made war too expensive to contemplate or to wage.  Indeed, Nobel Prize winner Sir Norman Angell’s The Great Illusion, written in 1910 and required reading for the intelligentsia, made that case eloquently and, as it turned out, entirely wrongly. Today, the nearly four hundred year old Westphalian [...]

By |2017-11-14T21:28:36+02:00July 3rd, 2013|Blogs, Global Governance, Harlan Ullman., International Peace, & Security, Issues|0 Comments
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America strikes out

Using a baseball metaphor, in the field of national security, when the United States comes to the plate to bat, it often starts with two and a half strikes against it. Strike one is the chronic tendency to misinterpret, distort and even invent threats often for politically expedient reasons. Strike two is the failure to address the question of “what next?” once crucial foreign or national security policy decisions have been taken. Strike two and a half are lapses in oversight of sensitive national security programs that too often occur. Regarding threat assessment, during the Cold War, the U.S. believed that the Soviet Union was “ten feet tall.” It turned [...]

By |2017-11-14T21:28:37+02:00June 21st, 2013|Blogs, Defense / Homeland Security, Harlan Ullman., Issues, Studies and Analysis|0 Comments
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Trapped in the cul de sac of no good choices

Unlike the past when the United States faced potentially existential dangers, from the Revolution to the Civil War, Great Depression, World War II and the Cold War, since the attacks on New York City’s Twin Towers on September 11th, too many of today’s crises and challenges have no obvious solutions let alone good ones.  The United States seems caught in a no-man’s land of danger that eludes choices that can affect positive outcomes. Syria is one of many examples.  As this column asked, suppose in human terms, supporting the horrible regime of Bashar Assad would claim the fewest number of lives.  Are a hundred or two hundred thousand lives worth [...]

By |2017-11-14T21:28:38+02:00June 4th, 2013|Blogs, Harlan Ullman., Studies and Analysis|0 Comments
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Syrian Supernova?

Doha, Qatar:  Syria is dying.  A further tragedy is that there is little the outside world can do to end that war. The struggle between Bashar al Assad's Alawite-Shia regime and the largely Sunni opposition has already claimed upwards of 80,000 lives and turned hundreds of thousands into refugees seeking shelter in less dangerous parts of Syria or in neighboring states.  A British Member of Parliament who knows the region well believes that if Assad defeats the opposition, at least 100,000 will perish.  And if Assad goes, that number could double or triple in the ensuing bloodbath. Despite powerful domestic pressure to act, for the United States and other Western powers, every [...]

By |2017-11-14T21:28:38+02:00June 4th, 2013|Blogs, General, Harlan Ullman., Orientul Mijlociu|0 Comments
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Pakistani politics: perils and paradoxes

This weekend, many tens of millions of some 200 million Pakistanis will elect new national and four provincial governments. The elections are a remarkable milestone due in large measure to President Asif Zardari’s political navigational skills in the most roiled of waters.  This is the first time in Pakistan’s history that an elected civilian government has completed a full five-year term and will be replaced democratically. At this stage, the only likely outcome is continued PPP control of the Senate and its 104 seats as only a third of the senators are up for re-election.  Most polls rank Nawaz Sharif and his PML-N party as the favorite possibly winning 90-100 [...]

By |2017-11-14T21:28:41+02:00May 14th, 2013|Blogs, Harlan Ullman.|0 Comments
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