George Friedman, Author at Centrul de analiza si studii de securitate

The Search for Belonging and Ballistic Missile Defense in Romania

During the Cold War, Romania confused all of us. Long after brutality in other communist countries declined, Romania remained a state that employed levels of violence best compared to North Korea today. Nicolae Ceausescu, referred to by admirers as the Genius of the Carpathians, ruled Romania with a ruthless irrationality. Government policies left the country cold and dark, and everyday items readily available just a few kilometers south in Bulgaria were rarities in Romania. At the same time -- and this was the paradox -- Romania was hostile and uncooperative with the Soviets. Bucharest refused to submit to Moscow, and this did not compute for many of us. Resistance to [...]

By George Friedman|2017-11-14T21:28:37+02:00June 10th, 2013|Defense / Homeland Security, Issues, Romanian Strategy & Politics, Studies and Analysis|0 Comments

Ferocious, Weak and Crazy: The North Korean Strategy
Ferocious, Weak and Crazy: The North Korean Strategy

Asia, Regions

Ferocious, Weak and Crazy: The North Korean Strategy

Editor's Note: George Friedman originally wrote this Geopolitical Weekly on North Korea's nuclear strategy on Jan. 29. More than two months later, the geopolitical contours of the still-evolving crisis have become more clear, so we believe it important to once again share with readers the fundamentals outlined in this earlier forecast. North Korea's state-run media reported Sunday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered the country's top security officials to take "substantial and high-profile important state measures," which has been widely interpreted to mean that North Korea is planning its third nuclear test. Kim said the orders were retaliation for the U.S.-led push to tighten U.N. sanctions on [...]

By George Friedman|2017-11-14T21:28:41+02:00April 17th, 2013|Asia, Regions|0 Comments

Beyond the Post-Cold War World
Beyond the Post-Cold War World

Defense / Homeland Security, Issues

Beyond the Post-Cold War World

An era ended when the Soviet Union collapsed on Dec. 31, 1991. The confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union defined the Cold War period. The collapse of Europe framed that confrontation. After World War II, the Soviet and American armies occupied Europe. Both towered over the remnants of Europe's forces. The collapse of the European imperial system, the emergence of new states and a struggle between the Soviets and Americans for domination and influence also defined the confrontation. There were, of course, many other aspects and phases of the confrontation, but in the end, the Cold War was a struggle built on Europe's decline. Many shifts in [...]

By George Friedman|2017-11-14T21:28:42+02:00April 8th, 2013|Defense / Homeland Security, Issues|0 Comments

Europe’s Disturbing Precedent in the Cyprus Bailout
Europe’s Disturbing Precedent in the Cyprus Bailout

Europa/Rusia, Regions

Europe’s Disturbing Precedent in the Cyprus Bailout

The European economic crisis has taken different forms in different places, and Cyprus is the latest country to face the prospect of financial ruin. Overextended banks in Cyprus are teetering on the brink of failure for issuing loans they cannot repay, which has prompted the tiny Mediterranean country, a member of the European Union, to turn to Brussels for help. Late Sunday, the European Union and Cypriot president announced new terms for a bailout that would provide the infusion of cash necessary to prevent bankruptcies in Cyprus' banking sector and, more important, prevent a banking panic from spreading to the rest of Europe. What makes this crisis different from the [...]

By George Friedman|2017-11-14T21:28:43+02:00April 8th, 2013|Europa/Rusia, Regions|0 Comments

A New Reality in U.S.-Israeli Relations
A New Reality in U.S.-Israeli Relations

Orientul Mijlociu, Regions

A New Reality in U.S.-Israeli Relations

U.S. President Barack Obama is making his first visit to Israel as president. The visit comes in the wake of his re-election and inauguration to a second term and the formation of a new Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Normally, summits between Israel and the United States are filled with foreign policy issues on both sides, and there will be many discussed at this meeting, including Iran, Syria and Egypt. But this summit takes place in an interesting climate, because both the Americans and Israelis are less interested in foreign and security matters than they are in their respective domestic issues. In the United States, the political crisis over the federal [...]

By George Friedman|2017-11-14T21:28:43+02:00March 25th, 2013|Orientul Mijlociu, Regions|0 Comments